GIC
A Weekly
Outlook and Analysis of the
Global Investment Climate
27 September
2001
Markets have character. Our job is to spot it. Sometimes they are deceptive and sometimes they are very revealing. This is the objective of technical analysis, and it differs with a statistical analysis, which strives precisely to preclude any unscientific interpretation.
Analysts cannot say that one is better than the other at predicting the future course of events. In fact, neither is particularly good at this endeavor. You and I may be, but these tools are just that. We use them in order to help us figure out what to do next. Others use them to try and help you figure out what they want you to.
But statistical analysis is particularly difficult to apply to capital markets because few events are like the other. In fact, the only way they may be similar is in the way the market behaves in their presence.
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| What does the positive contango between the Nov '01 / Feb '02 contract mean? |
SEPTEMBER
GLOBAL MARKET REVIEW
|
Aug
24 - Sep 26
|
LAST
|
CHANGE
|
% CHANGE
|
| Dow |
8567
|
-
1856
|
17.8%
|
| SP500 |
1007
|
-
178
|
15.0%
|
| Nasdaq Comp |
1464
|
-
453
|
23.6%
|
| TSE 300 |
6655
|
-
975
|
12.8%
|
| Euro Top 100 |
245
|
-
47
|
16.1%
|
| FTSE 100 |
4682
|
-
790
|
14.4%
|
| Nikkei |
9642
|
-
1524
|
13.7%
|
|
Best
Performing U.S. Equity Sectors
|
|||
| XAU Gold Miners Index |
57.77
|
-
0.49
|
0.8%
|
| Telecom Index (XTC) |
825.65
|
-
46.18
|
5.3%
|
| Insurance Index |
676.23
|
-
43.09
|
6.0%
|
| Pharmaceuticals / Drug Stocks |
374.30
|
-
24.93
|
6.2%
|
| Hospitals Index |
331.25
|
-
25.32
|
7.1%
|
|
Interest
Rates
|
|||
| 10 yr US Yields |
4.64%
|
-
0.27
|
5.6%
|
| 30 yr US Yields |
5.50%
|
+
0.06
|
1.1%
|
|
Commodities
|
|||
| CRB |
190.57
|
-
8.98
|
4.5%
|
| West Texas Intermediate Crude |
21.81
|
-
5.09
|
18.9%
|
| Gold (vs dollar) |
291
|
+
18
|
6.6%
|
| Silver |
4.62
|
+
0.38
|
9.0%
|
|
Currencies
|
|||
| US Dollar Index |
112.26
|
-
1.07
|
0.9%
|
| Dollar / Euro |
1.085
|
-
0.013
|
1.2%
|
| Dollar / Yen |
117.20
|
-
1.67
|
1.4%
|
| Ratios | |||
| Gold/Silver |
63.0
|
-
1.4
|
2.2%
|
| Gold/Oil |
13.3
|
+
3.1
|
30.4%
|
| Gold/CRB |
1.52
|
+
0.15
|
11.0%
|
In This Week's Issue (SUBSCRIBERS ONLY):
- Where will the V turn up?
- Will there be a bounce in the Dow?
- Crisis management and similar historic events...
- Demand shocks and their impact on oil consumption...
- M. King Hubbert predicts the end to cheap oil, for the world, 45 years ago, and he's been right all along...
- Eddie George, Governor of the Bank of England, on the challenges affecting central banking policy in the new millennium.
|
Sincerely,
Edmond J. Bugos
The GoldenBar Global Investment Climate is not a registered advisory service and does not give investment advice. Our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While we believe our statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of our own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you toconfirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.