The GoldenBar Report
February 19, 2001
An in depth analysis of relevant
Global Financial and Economic Debates
"They
that can give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary
safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety."
- Benjamin Franklin
Monetary Statism
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Nevertheless
liberty is precisely what is compromised when a central bank issues
even a single fiat (credit) dollar, never mind a virtual mountain
of monetized obligations*. We just don't know it yet… or fully understand
it. But a creeping socialism has already surrounded us. And although
there are many government made distortions (otherwise known as policies)
knotted throughout the free market system, it is our central banking
organizations, which are responsible for allocating (or misallocating)
most of our scarce capital and resources this century. Rhetoric?
Not at all, on the contrary, a dead serious contention that we will
bear out in this report. Failing that, we will do it in a future
report. Just kidding. We'll do it right the first time.
America's Identity Crisis: Socialism,
or Capitalism?
Either economic system can presuppose several reasonably different
political, social, or civil settings. For instance, we know that
it is possible to perceive capitalism under both, a democratic constitution
as well as a monarch. Even under some dictatorships - Singapore
comes to mind - capitalism can be professed. We also ought to know
that socialism can exist under various political structures. And
we know that the two systems can, and overwhelmingly do, often cohabitate
the same constitution but never the same mind. Indeed, the global
symbols of pure anti-market socialism fell with the collapse of
the Soviet Union and the Berlin Wall. And while many of us see the
United States as a symbol of nearly pure capitalism, the reality
is anything but pure.
Not
surprisingly, the vast majority of people are confused about the
differences between capitalism and socialism. This becomes evident
when people are seen to depend on the government for capitalism
to work. And it doesn't help that the government is confused about
its own role in the economic processes of the day. But capitalism
begins and ends with the individual not the state. In fact, it has
nothing to do with the state. It is the natural economic consequence
of human freedom, a process that can only be described, not constructed,
as to its ability to ensure maximum individual potential, and achievement.
It is first a state of mind, and perhaps the only state of mind,
which can execute its promise.
Adam
Smith discovered that this natural economic process (capitalism)
worked because a free market price mechanism most efficiently determined
the allocation of the world's scarce land, labor, and capital to
their most productive uses. Ayn Rand discovered that the process
of capitalism would only work if the rights of the individual were
guaranteed sanctity over those of anyone else, particularly any
collective. I couldn't agree more.
But
the efficacy of the price mechanism is the subject of unresolved
debate between the opposing factions. It is difficult for statists
to accept that contained within a free market price is the right
mixture of all of the variables that determine the needs of all
the resources involved in a particular transaction, at a particular
moment. It is equally difficult for capitalists to prove that this
is indeed the case, except with reason, for the invisible hand has
always been handicapped by bureaucratic intervention.
Hence,
the question of whether the free market price mechanism can allocate
the world's scarce resources better than a centralized planning
structure remains largely a matter of philosophy. For, we have never
really seen a free market at work before, and increasingly so, because
our price mechanisms remain largely dysfunctional.
When
we finish this treatise, the hope is to convey how existing statists
(closet socialists) have been successfully manipulating the price
mechanism in order to achieve their insidious goals, at the expense
of our (including their) long-term liberty.
On the Mechanism of Prices
In all cases, capitalism involves the belief that a free market,
unhampered by human moral hazard, is the optimum - if not most efficient
- economic system of resource allocation. Capitalists believe that,
left to its own, the free market price mechanism will send buyers
(or consumers) and sellers (or producers) the correct signals. They
contend that socialists, and anyone else for that matter, are unable
to foresee the consequential distortions to this process, which
they introduce with "policy." A capitalist will also correctly
contend that there is hardly a market in which our government does
not already introduce potential distortions today. Thus, pure capitalism
remains untried in its ability to realize its promise to society.
The
data that policymakers rely upon in their deliberations is contaminated
with prior policy byproduct, and therefore, can at best perform
as assumption. I will concede that it must be difficult to plan
not just for one future, but also the nation's future. However,
therein lays one of our fundamental paradoxes. A free market system
ought not to have anyone planning anything for the individual. It's
just not included in the package. Although the intentions may "seem"
good, the consequences are often not, and the assumptions that are
made to explain the contaminated data inputs are rarely adequate.
Rather they are often only convenient propaganda.
Experience
with the average statesman in the real world reveals that while
he or she gains nothing monetarily (in most cases) from his public
service for doing good deeds, he gains everything in influence.
And in some countries, influence is worth more than money. Thus,
perhaps ingrained in his or her psyche is a quest for power, without
a doubt, under the guise of righteousness. And whenever we exchange
freedom for some vestibule of righteousness (a temporary safety),
it is done at the expense of essential liberty. Ayn Rand points
out that self-sacrifice is the value encouraged by every statesman
in order to empower the state at the expense of the individual.
Ask not what your country…
Yet,
the lack of faith in the ability of a free market price to do the
"required" work may also expose the socialist's true fear (insecurity)
that true competition will render him powerless, or common. For
his value is in finding advantage over others, in the name of others…
sort of like Clinton's potential Real Estate ploy in Harlem?
Furthermore,
socialists need to believe that the free nature of things left to
their own in the natural world tend towards disequilibria… sort
of like Mr. Soros' relentless chanter about the inherent instability
of markets. Thus, it is no surprise that if market distortions cannot
be understood for what they are then neither can the socialist nature,
which ALWAYS contributes to these distortions.
So,
in all cases, socialism is misplaced ideology if its proponents
do not believe that free markets are indeed the problem. They have
to. For there is no other crutch to justify their constant meddling.
Socialists advocate the belief that free markets, left to their
own, will become corrupt, wild, and monopolized by the greedy bourgeoisie.
They point to one impure example of free markets after another to
support their view. They believe that people should not have to
suffer to fulfill the capitalist vision of the ideal economic system.
They believe that business cycles can be manipulated, extended,
and even eliminated. They believe that they cannot only control
the price mechanism, but supplant it.
In
Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal, Ayn Rand builds an irrefutable
case against the altruism that drives socialism, and she is right.
It begins in the soul of every individual; it is always (historically)
a matter of life and death, not a matter of belief, that the individual
is more important than the collective.
Ironically,
Alan Greenspan, perhaps the greatest statesman in US history, happens
to be one of two people whose name appears under the title on the
cover of her book… maybe in the hope that inside of the man lays
a true capitalist, rather than a self sacrificing altruist. Remember
this, the next time you hear someone refer to the Greenspan Put.
So
the chains of arrogant socialism have yet to be broken. On the topic
of the evolution of mankind's pursuit of freedom, Rand says this:
At
first man was enslaved by the gods, but he broke their chains…
Then he was enslaved by the kings, but he broke their chains…
He was enslaved by his birth, by his kin, by his race, but he broke
their chains...
He declared to all his brothers that man has rights that neither
god or king nor other men can take away from him no matter what
their number. For his is the right of man. And there is no right
on earth above this right - The Anthem, by
Ayn Rand
Today,
the statists enslave man. May he break their bloody chains!!
If
God has created man in his own image, who is doing man a favor by
oppressing his individual evolution with the idea that he should
submit to the state everything that he is? Who does God submit to?
To be sure, I am not religious but I think the point was worthwhile.
Yet
it (the transfer of liberty from man to state) is done whenever
man is encouraged to sacrifice his individual potential for a greater
cause. It is done whenever the state asks man to let it do for him
what he cannot do himself. It is done whenever the state interferes
with reality, manipulates it, alters it, or intervenes in it for
all our sake. The state never has and never will support your right
to individual freedom. It will not show you how to maximize your
individual potential. It is not in the state's interests. All I
can say is that I hope that Mr. Greenspan does not destroy this
century long fight for capitalism by calling himself an objectivist.
It would be an injustice to symbolize him as a capitalist. For we
see nothing but policy maneuvering in his stewardship.
How
did it come to this? For one…
Keynes was a Statist in the fight
AGAINST Individual Freedom
When the Soviet Union collapsed, it was a victorious moment for
capitalism. I was proud to be a capitalist. For all capitalists
knew long before the collapse of communist Russia that it would
collapse, because the country suffered from decades of cumulative
resource misallocation, capital malinvestment, and philosophical
shortcomings, which first ruined the economy and then the currency.
And since a political structure can only be as strong as the nation's
economic standing, that crumbled too. Who doesn't know this?
The
American government knows this. They know that the key to power
rests with their ability to bestow prosperity of any kind upon the
voting (unassuming) public. Clinton made it work, and as a result
we have grown to trust the government, and even worse, have assigned
to it a Full Faith And Credit (Jim Cook) in its ability
to invent "policies" that make us (feel) wealthier. And so we find
that at the core of the debate between socialists and capitalists
is usually John Maynard Keynes. He is the one blurring factor, and
perhaps (besides Paul Krugman) the only socialist ever to have successfully
clouded the distinction between capitalism and socialism. This is
probably because his disciples accept the efficacy of the price
mechanism, when it is convenient.
For
those who are unaware, Keynes is generally credited with the recipe,
which gave the US government a cure for the depression - deficit
spending. His work is celebrated and taught in schools across North
America as the optimum mode of capitalist achievement. It has given
statists the license to manipulate the economy under the guise of
capitalism, laboring under the belief that they can make capitalism
better. When that system of government finally manifested in the
collapse of the Bretton Woods arrangement, Milton Friedman saved
face with his contribution to the state, by forwarding the argument
that this system can be perpetuated if we crush the constraints,
which inhibit us from controlling the money supply and from manipulating
the public's inflation expectation sets. And Nixon made it so.
Keynes
was oft quoted saying that "in the long run we are all dead."
I hate that expression. Is that what we should tell our children,
that Dad and Mom don't give a hoot about what happens to the world
in 100 years, or that their children will be affected? It's the
kind of thing you might expect to come from the mouth of a high
roller? Oh, what do I mean?? I know it's only an expression... but
incredibly, it happens to also justify the vast array of Keynesian
economic theory. Furthermore, we are here… at the long run!!
Economists
with Keynes in them will tell you that Austrian economics is a mind-f___.
You can fill in the blank. The reason, they will claim, is that
the only way a boom can end is if people think it will end. Thus,
Austrian like theories of business cycles as well as other mostly
unalterable economic laws such as, markets go up and they go down,
or too much money "is" inflation, are regarded as self-fulfilling,
or pessimistic.
Implicit
in this criticism is that there is no such thing as an economic
law, which cannot be managed. But there is more. Implicit in this
view is also the natural inference that positive thinking is the
key to the successful application of policy... always look on
the bright side of life*.
Besides,
Wall Street is hedged against pessimism now, isn't it?
I cannot
stress more that there is nothing wrong with optimism. I, for example,
am optimistic that somewhere in that mess of an institution they
call the Federal Reserve Board is someone who cares. I am also optimistic
that free markets, with institutions that exist only to protect
that freedom, will some day get their chance to show their stuff.
In the meantime, let's give further consideration to what Keynes
contributed… it will be short.
For that is in The Long Run
According to Keynesians, booms never have to end. Further, if they
do, policymakers can always invent new ways to start a new boom.
Policymakers? Yet remember that Keynes types vehemently (hypocritically
in our view) believe in efficient markets. At least the ones we've
run into.
In
the end, Keynes is a government hero. He made government what it
is today - big, deceitful, pompous, ridiculous, and plain socialist.
Thus Keynes should go down in history as a statesman, not a capitalist.
He proved that man needs the state's help to get along, and therefore
that the individual ought to concede some essential liberty, to
the state. He is not my hero.
It
is our contention that Americans now live in a socialist country,
almost as bad as the one we live in, Canada. For, the same economists
that peddle these confused ideas are the same ones that think that
they can keep the capital markets animated by sheer psychological
manipulation of our will. Do our elected officials really think
that way? Some do. I can assure you of that. Others, like Keynes
himself, will know that they cannot fool all of the people all of
the time, but will sure do it anyway. Why? Because their sheer arrogance
and position in government gives them the idea that if it breaks,
it can be rebuilt, all over again. Well folks, it's broke.
The Mises/Hayek/Jenger Utopia
To be sure, what has come to be referred to, as the Austrian view
of free markets, is as utopian to capitalists as the communist vision
was perceived to be, for socialists. This is because humans, their
nature being what it is, tend to fear free markets, because they
are insecure about themselves. But again, we strike at an Ayn Rand
theme. For it is the objective of the state in the first place to
make men feel less than what they are.
Ask
yourself if you have ever met a single human that did not have a
single insecurity. I'm sure some of you have, but I would bet most
have not. Yet, most of these people are in charge. They are not
infallible and for the most part, know it, which is why their forefathers
got together to develop a constitution as the foundation for a number
of institutions that are supposed to act as a check on our reckless
ambitions, which far too often probably grow out of our desire to
compensate for our insecurities (sorry, couldn't leave that unfinished).
But
reason like this is the old economy stuff. Long before we became
fully conscious of our own bias, right? Before we conquered the
world with a mysterious ability to generate prosperity for ourselves.
So, if we do not need these old institutions to generate prosperity,
why do they exist at all? For since we (the collective) can so easily
create our own prosperity, we need not fear failure.
Fatal Arrogance
Am I close so far? Have we become arrogant in assuming that we no
longer need checks such as used to be the role of a gold standard,
for instance, as a check against the state? Or checks such as the
right to bear arms, which is supposed to function as our last line
of individual protection of private property (we don't have that
privilege in Canada) mainly from the state. Is it any surprise that
this same government now wants to replace the gold standard and
ban your right to bear arms? As if they were both the root cause
of our problems today? Think about it. What other checks or institutions
have we forsaken in our growing arrogance?
Are
we not empowering the state when we believe that the Fed can make
the dollar or stock market go up, for instance, or that our scientists
will have figured out how to duplicate human life, or that the IEA
and OPEC can contain out of control energy markets? Is the international
banking cartel arrogant in thinking that it can not only sell gold
in increasing quantities, but that it can completely eliminate the
psychological bond (though they would say restraint) that those
who seek freedom have developed with gold.
Now
that is arrogance. And they have most of us believing that they
will do it too. But the bond is not a matter of inhibition. It is
a matter of trust… a trust that the state has so far been winning.
Dark Days Ahead for Capitalism
Though you can be sure that should the US economy crumble, Keynes
will not get the blame… capitalism will. For, most of the world
perceives the Federal States of America (that includes Canada and
Mexico) as the ultimate symbol of capitalism. Indeed, most of the
world has a vested interest in the success of American "capitalism."
And in what has to be the scariest example of irony, World Bank
protestors think that they are protesting capitalism when they are
actually battling an increasingly failing socialism.
If
you are still confused and think that we live in a democracy and
a free market system, then perhaps this will help. A journalist*
writing for Bloomberg wrote an article called Central Banks Rule
the World, in which he described his encounters with Greenspan
fans in Portugal among his global travails. The title is Exhibit
A, for our socialist case against the bank. Exhibit B follows:
In
his column, Pesek says that,
Actually,
the Fed's recent actions are perhaps the best reason why investors
tempted to shun the U.S. ought to reconsider. For all the worrisome
signs that have emerged in recent months, America's economic climate
is likely to be friendlier than Europe or Asia over the next year,
said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics
in Valhalla, New York. While the U.S. is growing far less rapidly
than it was a few months ago, it has myriad options and huge resources
available to fix things.
Fix
things? Exhibit B. Someone please save us from these statists and
give us back our free markets!! Forget about guessing where the
friendliest economic climate is going to be. That is a matter of
speculation not banking policy. What is troubling is that investors
find solace in the success of US monetary alchemy, and thus compromise
some liberty in allowing Greenspan the right to intervene into the
stock market and economy's fate on their behalf. Exhibit C. For
some reason, the fact that the myriad of options and resources employed
to fix things so far have created enormous economic problems and
social consequences seems to evade Wall Street. But there is a reason
for that. For one, Wall Street has married the banking business,
and thus, the Fed, our most dangerous source of the seeds of socialist
destruction. Worse, they have allowed the Fed to dismantle the pillars,
which up to now had kept them out of the stock and insurance trades.
The Inflationist Agenda
The subtitle to Mr. Pesek's article was:
America's
reliance on foreign capital to finance its economy is a danger...
William Pesek Jr., Feb 8 - Bloomberg.
What
an understatement. But America's real problem is inflation… remember,
inflation is too much money. How do we know that there are too many
dollars? Because the dollar price of most energy prices has soared
beyond what is explicable by either OPEC prodding or inventory shortfall,
or the deregulation in California. Because the dollar price of platinum
and palladium have soared skyward. Because the dollar price of most
agricultural prices has gained considerably. Because the dollar
price of most industrial materials continues to trade higher. Because
the commodity indexes have risen dramatically over the past twelve
months, even though the dollar price of gold and silver have been
a drag on them. And finally, because all of this is happening in
the midst of an economic slowdown, or perhaps recession… that's
how we know there is too much money.
Furthermore,
the author misses the point. America's reliance is not really reliance.
It's more like a deliberation. For, consider the effect of the type
of monetary inflation in the US on a closed US economy. Boom. Dollar
loses its purchasing power and prices of everything begin to rise.
The government loses its ability to manage the paper exchange price
of the currency because it is only priced in other goods. Now imagine
two, three, or more trading partners pursuing the same "inflationist"
monetary policy, on their own. The same thing would happen in each
country, in isolation. The currency would break down against the
(objective) value of most goods. In fact, every country on this
planet that has ever tried to inflate their money supply has met
with the same, or nearly same, consequences.
But
what if these countries developed a paper fiat system internationally?
What if, instead of breaking down, foreigners bought up the excess
dollars, which are created on the backs of domestic consumers, who
are persuaded to exchange them for excess foreign goods and services?
This way, consumers can buy goods from Europe and Asia with an artificially
managed dollar exchange rate? Thus inflation could be contained
this way, if foreigners can be coerced into financing the resulting
trade deficit in order to help maintain the high value of the dollar.
Exhibit D.
And
if bankers around the world exchanged their gold reserves for dollar
reserves, then foreign investors may also be persuaded of the dollar's
credibility this way. Exhibit E. But this one actually messes everything
up. Now, rather than being able to pass the hot potato (trade deficit)
along, to another country, the US is stuck with it. The reason is
that by depressing the dollar price of gold, the international currency
regime effectively becomes a hierarchy where the dollar stands atop
like the mighty tower of Babel.
Suddenly,
it appears that there is no other currency in the world with such
a high psychological stature as to allow foreigners the confidence
to finance such a ridiculously overblown consumption cycle in their
own countries. So in anticipation of this potential problem, we
believe that the genius minds behind the alchemy of international
finance decided that it was time to develop new currency blocs like
the Euro, and promote it as an alternative to the dollar, an alternative
that they can control and exploit. It is no surprise to us then
that it was an American economics professor at Columbia University,
Robert Mundell, who was the chief architect of this plan. The idea
was to dilute the polarity of the hierarchy by creating equal size
Paper Mountains.
The
Europeans would be better choices of course (than the Asians) because
the European banks were already short a whole bunch of gold. Now
that the Euro is ready, international policymakers and investment
advisors have been trying to promote the same investment cycle,
perhaps so that they can now unwind some of these excesses in an
orderly fashion. As long as this all works, as we have mentioned
in past issues, the officially announced government "estimates"
of inflation (PPI, CPI, and GDP deflator) are accepted by nearly
everyone. But there are many things going wrong.
Dollar
inflation has been soaring and has driven global energy prices over
the past two years to such an extreme that California's deregulation
plan literally exploded. The declining stock market is a major problem
because most European investors are long it. Can the Fed support
the stock market with monetary policy without aggravating commodity
prices, and just long enough to unwind the "hot potato?" We doubt
very much that they can.
Certainly
two things are obvious: first, so far there is no unwinding, only
patchwork solutions to postpone the consequences of ongoing problems,
and second, inflation of the money supply is the core problem in
the first place. The Fed wouldn't have to resort to all out manipulation
and alchemy in every aspect of finance if an inflationist monetary
policy did not exist in the first place. So the new question is,
with all of the alchemy, what have they really done to the real
economy? What have they done to the invisible hand? Oh brother,
where's the beef?
Central Banks Rule the World
They really do don't they? This is no democracy. Bankers, who steadily
supply us with a means to consume, run the country. They are our
sugar daddies. We clamor for them to do something, like lower interest
rates.
But
when the bank sets interest rates, it is interfering with the free
market price mechanism. How? Let us not forget that if credit exists
a natural interest rate must exist. The natural interest rate, like
every other real price in this economy, is theoretical however.
In theory it is the price of credit at which the forces of consumption
and savings are in balance. Call it equilibrium. But, is this equilibrium?
<Insert
Chart of Personal Savings Rates -- 30 years>
I'm
sure that the Keynesian would step up to the plate and suggest that
these conditions may persist for some time… and he would be right.
So long as the gap, between what the theoretical natural interest
might be and what actual interest rates are grows, it's a good deal
for consumers. Now, ideally, provided we could get the data, it
would be interesting to compare this to the same data for G10 countries
so that we could try to guestimate some kind of long term equilibrium
and thus maybe an approximation of this natural interest rate. Notice,
in the chart, that from the early 1970's up until even the early
nineties, the two forces were roughly in balance… apart from the
year leading up to the 1987 stock market crash. Now, notice how
after about 1992, the forces of consumption blew this equilibrium
away.
What
is happening here, we believe, is that the Fed has forced interest
rates below where the market is supposed to have been, for some
time now, and in the process only encouraged more consumption and
disequilibria. Thus, we speculate that the natural interest rate,
as well, must have risen in the latter part of the decade.
According
to Wiksell*, this interest rate must equal the expected rate of
return on investment in say, dollars… or the opportunity cost of
capital, if you will. This rate reflects the individual's choice
between spending and saving. If his propensity to consume is high,
he will require a higher interest rate to induce him to save rather
than spend. His choice comes down to choosing between whether some
good priced at $100 today is worth more to him than say the prospect
of earning $10 on that capital over a year. The amount of return
that it takes to get him to save is his time preference rate, which
equals the opportunity cost of money (Keynesian term, not mine),
which equals the economy's natural interest rate.
A good
proxy for the natural interest rate during the late nineties might
then in fact be the annual return on blue chip stocks. But the high
return on stocks relative to government set interest rates, probably
also amplified the return in stock markets, which probably amplified
the forces of consumption. Can you see how many potential permutations
there may be to the distortions created by monetary policy? If so,
Exhibit F. Furthermore, this process undermines the nation's entire
capital structure. For if the individual consumer requires a higher
rate of return than is offered in order to save, and as a result,
does not, then who is there to finance the longer term production
processes in the new economy? Thus, rather than deepening, the nation's
capital structure must be thinning, or eroding… just another distortion.
And
through this monetary manipulation, this is how they roughly try
to manipulate the economy, and us. It is not business, nor are the
markets truly free. Those who control the money spigot decide where
to allocate resources or profits, not the free market. And all of
this is done in order to get us to consume more not less, and it
is designed to empower the state. Still don't believe us?
This argument
against the effectiveness of quantitative easing (expanding the
money supply as an official policy) is simply irrelevant to arguments
that focus on the expectational effects of monetary policy. And
quantitative easing could play an important role in changing expectations;
a central bank that tries to promise future inflation will be
more credible if it puts its (freshly printed) money where its
mouth is
-- Paul Krugman, December 1999
Krugman*
wrote this in an essay about Japan's liquidity trap. In the article
he is suggesting that the Bank of Japan, were it committed to inflation,
would be more likely to get out of its liquidity trap. The reason,
he claims, is that the banker who promises to inflate can make the
horse drink out of the trough. This is such a short-term truth at
best, and one with enormous consequences. So to sum up Mr. Krugman's
definition of a credible commitment... a banker that
promises to print ever more money will make monetary policy more
effective, not less, so long as it puts that fresh money where its
mouth is by changing market expectations.
Monetary
policy has turned into the theory of mass psychology, and in order
for it to work; its authors have to increasingly manipulate the
masses. But go ahead, be manipulated, and empower the state.
Inflation Destroys the Price Mechanism
Moreover, the student of money and credit understands precisely
why a free market price mechanism might be dysfunctional: ANY change
in the money supply will ultimately affect the purchasing power
of the money that is used in exchange for the good in question.
This influence has nothing at all to do with the demand for, or
supply of, the good. Rather, the influence is wholly monetary, meaning
that the value of any currency is simply the result of the interaction
between the demand and supply, for it... the money rather than the
good.
Furthermore,
there is no formula that will determine how much of the price of
any good is affected by the interaction of real demand and supply,
for it, and how much of the price is affected by a change in the
purchasing power of the currency. The reason is that there is a
lag between the economic fact and the psychology of the economy's
participants, which determines the unit's actual purchasing power
in the here and now. This value, which is assigned to the medium
of exchange, today, is a function of consensus perceptions about
the ability of the monetary unit to maintain its value in the future.
And
to the extent that, in this Fiat based money economy, participants
base their views of the future purchasing power of particular money
upon its performance in the recent past, the actual inflation breakdown
often lags the cause. Indeed, Ludwig von Mises showed exactly that,
when he proved that all prices do not rise at the same time, at
first. This is precisely why, for instance, the hyperinflation in
Germany, in 1923, lagged the dramatic expansion in the supply of
Reich marks, though not nearly as inflation today has lagged the
greatest expansion of dollars ever seen. Though that can be attributed
to the combination of financial alchemy and statist propaganda.
Conclusion
There are too many institutions that we have developed to protect
our insecurities and not enough to protect our right to free markets
and private property. But as Benjamin Franklin said, they that give
up our liberty to cover their Asses deserve to get fried!
So
why are we discussing all of this? Because perhaps there is a message
somewhere in these markets, in these strange times. What does it
have to do with your investment strategy? Everything and a half.
For we believe that the gold standard is one of the institutions
that can and will guarantee our economic freedom, and thus your
individual rights. Without a gold standard, you might as well let
the government manage your money for you.
Thus,
to the silent but growing rumblings within the establishment that
democracy may not be sustainable in the company of unregulated markets,
we have the following message:
Yes,
democracy is possible, but the money must be honest. For it is through
the political mechanisms, which have accumulated influence under
this "monetary" regime, that we have become socialized. It is as
the result of the overwhelming influence of an array of socialist
mechanisms, gradually introduced through policy and way too often
mandated by ourselves, that we have become enslaved by the state,
which allocates resources according to the wishes of its most powerful
authorities, who today are the central banking cartels, rather than
the invisible hand, that we have not achieved the utopian idea of
honest money. For true individual freedom in a dynamic democracy
is not possible without the condition of economic freedom, period.
And economic freedom cannot be possible without some kind of anchor
that stabilizes the coin of the realm, and ensures our monetary
freedom. Look no further than ills in our own economy for proof
of that.
Stay
tuned, next week we're back to the markets… and it only gets more
interesting.
Foot
Notes
- We
prefer the word "compromise" to "stolen" because such a loss of
liberty is as much our fault as the central bank's fault, for
they only operate under our mandate. It is our individual obligation
to defend the privilege of liberty in order to reap the benefits
of that freedom.
- Monty
Python.
- William
Pesek Jr. writing for Bloomberg on February 8th 2001, in
a column titled Central Banks Rule the World.
- Knut
Wiksell, a Swedish born economist wrote about the natural interest
rate in an article in 1906. Mises subsequently adopted
it in explaining many of the concepts in his major works.
- Paul
Krugman is a popular economists and professes at MIT.
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